Confusion & Superstition

by Hla Min

Updated : May 2025

• Some people confuse Correlation with Causation.
• Some people are superstitious and associate Bad Luck with specific signs and events (e.g Solar & Lunar Eclipses).

Correlation

• In Probability and Statistics, one has to determine if two variables have positive, negative or zero correlation.
• Two variables are said to be positively correlated if both go up and down together.
• Two variations are said to be negatively correlated if one goes up when the other goes down (and vice versa).
• Two variables are said to be zero (no) correlation, if there is no significant trend.

Confusion

• Some confuse Correlation with Causation.
• Correlated variables may or may not be related as “Cause and Effect”.
• For example, we hear, “My friend has lung cancer. He does not smoke.”

Does Smoking cause Lung Cancer?

The early experiments show some correlation between Heavy Smoking and Lung Cancer.

There are several parameters in Smoking

• cigar, cigarette, e-cigarette, cheroot
• frequency
• quantity
• deep inhalation
• second hand smoke

Superstition about Eclipse

• Solar and Lunar Eclipses occur every year. There are Total and Partial Eclipses. We cannot see all eclipses from a place. Some occur in places we cannot see.
• Some are superstitious. They fear when there are Eclipses.
• Eclipses are natural phenomena. They do not cause bad events to happen.
• “A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.”